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TOMATOLAND MARKET REPORT JAN. 10, 2023

TOMATOLAND is offering you a global wrap-up of the processed tomatoes market at beginning of 2023.

CHINA
– The latest export figures as of end of November 2022 are quite informative :
o Bulk exports for 11 months of 2022 reached 606 000 MT. (up 30 % from 467 000 MT. during the same period of 2021) for a total value of 564 Millions US $, giving an average of 930 US $ / MT., up 20 % from 775 US $ / MT. in 2021.
o The TOP 5 buyers, unchanged from 2021, were Italy (91 223 MT.), Russia (74 770 MT.), Philippines (39 496 MT.), Saudi Arabia (31 948 MT.) and Ghana (28 823 MT.); no other buyers reached 20 000 MT. The Xinjiang lock down since August which limited exports did not affect the export volumes too much.
o Canned tomato paste exports also increased from 230 169 MT. in 2021 up to 250 458 MT. in 2022 again for the first 11 months (+ 9 %); Average value jumped from 831 $ / MT. in 2021 up to 925 US $ in 2022 (+ 11 %).
o In total, exports for the first 11 months of 2022 reached 856 000 MT. (77 818 MT. on a monthly average) up from 696 000 MT. one year earlier. The lack of products in California and the Mediterranean Basin definitely pushed Chinese exports in recent months.
o Based on production data from 2021 (4,7 Millions MT. of fresh tomatoes) and 2022 (5,75 Millions MT.) and some reasonable assumptions on production yields and carry-overs inventories, it is very foreseeable that China will not be able to keep the same export pace into 2023 until the next crop becomes available in September; not to mention the local consumption, still quite unclear.
– The Xinjiang lockdown was lifted in December and shipments from factories to port can now resume. Sellers are arguing overcrowded trains, higher transport rates and other difficulties to renegotiate older contracts. As many spot sales were made at much higher prices during the past weeks as the volume of goods at port ready for shipments was limited, sellers are now very reluctant to accept lower ones.
– To summarize, aseptic 36/38 % was initially contracted around 1 150 US $ par MT. FOB, then sold up to 1 350 US $ during the lock down; revised contracted prices now range between 1 250 US $ and 1 300 US $ per MT. on FOB Tianjin basis. This is still extremely cheap when compared to any other sources including Egypt and Iran (see below) especially since freight rates have dropped back to much lower levels (Tianjin / Dubai at 1 450 US $, Tianjin / Napoli at 1 875 US $ and below 1 000 US $ for Tianjin / Antwerp per 20-feet container).
– We strongly expect Chinese prices to keep on rising upon strong demand from abroad.
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