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Crop 2020 transplanting suffers a big delay in Extremadura and Portugal due to unexpected rainy period since half march till now.
Below graph show the rains and temperatures in 5 areas of Vegas Bajas and 5 areas of Vegas Altas in Extremadura since 16th March till 22nd April.
Rains vary from 119,60 to 157 l/m2 and the average is near 133 l/m2. Typically, rains should be almost at zero or very residual.
In this period there have been only 5 consecutive days without rain.
| Average Temp (°C) | Sum of Rainfall (mm) | |
| Vegas Bajas | 13,28 | 146,67 |
| Bercial (BA203) | 13,28 | 146,67 |
| 16/03/2020 | 8,66 | 0,20 |
| 17/03/2020 | 11,18 | 0,20 |
| 18/03/2020 | 16,46 | 0,00 |
| 19/03/2020 | 14,90 | 0,00 |
| 20/03/2020 | 12,67 | 38,01 |
| 21/03/2020 | 10,48 | 12,94 |
| 22/03/2020 | 11,62 | 0,20 |
| 23/03/2020 | 11,85 | 0,20 |
| 24/03/2020 | 13,76 | 0,00 |
| 25/03/2020 | 13,35 | 0,00 |
| 26/03/2020 | 13,05 | 0,00 |
| 27/03/2020 | 9,78 | 0,00 |
| 28/03/2020 | 10,08 | 0,00 |
| 29/03/2020 | 11,74 | 0,00 |
| 30/03/2020 | 10,00 | 3,78 |
| 31/03/2020 | 8,88 | 11,14 |
| 01/04/2020 | 8,52 | 7,16 |
| 02/04/2020 | 11,58 | 0,80 |
| 03/04/2020 | 13,22 | 0,20 |
| 04/04/2020 | 13,27 | 0,20 |
| 05/04/2020 | 14,73 | 2,79 |
| 06/04/2020 | 15,32 | 7,16 |
| 07/04/2020 | 15,56 | 9,35 |
| 08/04/2020 | 16,18 | 0,20 |
| 09/04/2020 | 15,60 | 7,96 |
| 10/04/2020 | 16,68 | 0,00 |
| 11/04/2020 | 15,03 | 9,95 |
| 12/04/2020 | 15,88 | 0,20 |
| 13/04/2020 | 14,51 | 1,19 |
| 14/04/2020 | 14,72 | 0,20 |
| 15/04/2020 | 14,81 | 7,96 |
| 16/04/2020 | 14,94 | 11,54 |
| 17/04/2020 | 14,96 | 4,18 |
| 18/04/2020 | 15,42 | 0,20 |
| 19/04/2020 | 15,00 | 0,00 |
| 20/04/2020 | 12,31 | 8,56 |
| 21/04/2020 | 13,50 | 0,20 |
| 22/04/2020 | 14,58 | 0,00 |
There are around 15-20 days of delay in Extremadura and Portugal.
On April 21st in Portugal, Conesa has transplanted 13,5% of the surface when it should be at 45%.
In Extremadura, Conesa is around 15% when it should be at 50%. This is the situation in Vegas Bajas.
In Vegas Atlas transplanting is around 35% with a delay of 20%.
To have a normal crop, we should harvest until beginning of October (around the 10th ).
Some farmers are refusing to transplant very late, due to risk of rains in late September and beginning of October. So, it is highly probable to have less surface available and the yield in farms is decreasing starting September 15th.
Surely there would be a reduction of the crop but is early to give a precise figure; we can only estimate that it might be around 15% less.
To encourage the late transplanting, we will need to pay a premium to farmers.
It is already a reality that we will have a shorter crop. Normally we have a 60 days crop in comparison to around 50 days this year.
This will have an impact in available volumes on products like dices and low brix products (passata and pizza/crushed tomatoes) because these products are processed on specific lines that always run at 100% of the capacity, so volumes depend on available days of production.
However, in Andalucia the weather has been good, and transplanting is on trac: 88% on April 22nd.
2020 crop’s sale approach is very complicated due to the uncertainty of the crop.
Less crop days will have more impact on dices and low brix volume than in paste, due to specific production lines.
Prices are going to increase importantly due to several reasons:
. Compromise with farmers to pay more for tomatoes in the next crop (2021)
. Negative stocks in the market
. Uncertainty of the crop in Extremadura and Portugal
. Market situation: lack of products
. Logistic cost increase
. Prices should be at least at the level of the 2015 crop
Tomatoland, May 4, 2020